CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-12T01:14:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-12T01:14Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47534/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the Southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 in association with a long-duration C5.9-class flare from AR 14485 (S10W68) with corresponding circular EUV wave seen best in GOES SUVI 284 imagery starting around 2026-07-12T01:00Z. This eruption is located to the South of a prominent coronal hole, resulting in this CME likely being deflected. This CME overlaps with CME: 2026-0712T02:12Z. This subsequent CME (CME: 2026-07-12T02:12Z) appears to accelerate the Northern portion of this ongoing event (CME: 2026-07-12T02:14Z), greatly changing its morphology in later frames.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-15T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47547/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-12T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=46.0, Lat.=13.0, Speed=934.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2026-07-12T05:22Z
2026-07-12T01:14:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=43.0, Lat.=-11.0, Speed=552.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2026-07-12T07:45Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-15T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-13T09:46Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-16T07:42Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-13T22:44Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-14T23:41Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-18T02:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-17T23:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260712_074400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 71.42 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-12T14:35Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy